IPCC report: Code red for humanity


Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a climatic report titled 'Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.' The report which was the contribution of the Working Group 1 to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), is the first of the four that the panel will issue over the next one and a half years.


A major section of the report deals with climate change and global warming, with updated numbers, higher accuracy and specific regional assessments including South Asia. Since the pre-Industrial era, the Global temperature has now increased by 1.07°C. The most alarming fact is that no part of the inhabited land is left untouched by the impact of this grave danger. 

If no countries take fast action in cutting down the emissions of carbon, the global temperature would soon increase to an uncontrollable rate. 


The report also stated the significant change in the water cycle resulting in heavy rainfall and floods in some region and intense droughts in others. The sea level will rise throughout the 21st century in return causing more frequent and disastrous flooding in the coastal regions. Many of these new changes are locked- such as melting of glaciers, sea level rise and the thawing of permafrost. These changes are here to stay and cannot be reversed.


Heat extremes have increased and cold extremes have decreased, and these trends will continue over the coming decades in Asia. Marine heatwave will keep on increasing and fire weather seasons will lengthen and intensify. Mean surface winds have decreased and will continue to do so in central and north Asia.


Many regions are expected to experience extreme weather events such as heat waves followed by heavy droughts. "A warmer climate will intensify very wet and very dry weather and climate events and seasons, with implications for flooding or drought, but the location and frequency of these events depend on projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation, including monsoons and mid-latitude storm tracks," the report said.


As the third largest emitter of carbon dioxide, India has a huge responsibility to participate in the fight against global warming and climate change. Even after the major carbon emitters announced that they would become carbon neutral by 2050, India has still not followed suite. But this report of the IPCC is something that the second most populous city cannot ignore.


The glacial melting in the Hindu Kush Himalayas has caused rapid decrease in the snow covered areas which in response increased the occurence of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslides over morraine-dammed lakes. A glacial breach on February 7 in Uttarakhand, causing flash floods in the Rishiganga and Dhauliganga valleys and deaths of over 200 people, is just the beginning of the upcoming disaster if this scenario continues to be.


IPCC author and climate scientist from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Swapna Panickal said, "About 50% of the sea level rise is due to the thermal expansion. Also, Indian Ocean region is warming at a higher rate. That means the relative sea level can also increase over the regions. Hence, the coastal regions will see the sea level rise through the 21st century, and it will contribute to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low level areas and coastal erosion. Along with this, extreme sea level events that were previously seen once in a hundred years, could also happen every year by the end of the century." 


The major factor stimulating this global disaster is the greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide. The greenhouse gas effect of carbon has been known to the world for over a century. Yet there is still a lot to do to reduce its emission.


Another important cause of concern is the higher increase in HFCs or hydrofluorocarbons. This is a family of chemicals used extensively in the air-conditioning, refrigeration and furnishing form industry. Some say HFCs are worse than carbon dioxide in causing global warming. In fact, according to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), 22 of the most used HFCs have about 2,500 times average global warming potential than that of carbon dioxide.


Many of these changes are irreversible and will continue to cause damage to humanity for the coming future. The current rates of increase of the concentration of these gases are unprecedented over at least the last 800,000 years. These are the results of human activities as shown by several evidences.


Therefore it is high time that humanity as a whole take action. The 1989 Montreal Protocol was meant to protect the ozone layer of the upper atmosphere. This protocol gradually replaced the original CFCs first by HCFCs and eventually by HFCs. This transition from HCFCs to HFCs is still on going, especially in the developing countries.


India has a lot to do in this area starting by reducing climate change by controlling the rate of emission. As a result, adaptation to increased water scarcity, droughts, floods, cyclones and other natural disasters would be needed. The disaster management system should be upgraded and also should focus more on renewable energy.


Our country is currently developing a mid-century strategy for low carbon growth. Though it has set many ambitious renewable energy targets, challenges stay in it's way to achieve them such as the scarcity of technology and finance required for meeting these targets.


But one thing is clear. In order to find the solution for all these problems and rapidly reduce emissions by 2050, the thinking should be started today. And since South Asian countries lack in the financial and technical department, the support from international countries will play a vital role in tackling this danger.


Fathima Qudsiya